What is the new space race?

Space is now, more than ever, becoming an extension of the geography of Earth: humans are taking our nation states, our corporations, our history, politics and conflicts way up above us. 

The Cold War space race was all about getting up and out; now we’re claiming what’s there. And as more countries become spacefaring nations, history suggests there will be competition and cooperation along the way.

Space has already changed much in our everyday lives. It is central to communication, economics and military strategy, and increasingly important to international relations. That will inevitably mean ‘spheres of influence’ and even claims on territory as the rivalries, alliances and conflicts on Earth spill out into space.

But what we’ve failed to establish so far is a set of universally agreed-upon rules to regulate this competition; without laws governing human activity in space, the stage is set for disagreements on an astronomical level.

Which nations are involved in the new space race?

The USA, China and Russia are the clear front-runners, but the race is very different this time.

More than 80 countries now have a presence in space. Some people might be surprised to learn that the United Arab Emirates has sent a probe to Mars, and that Israel has (crash) landed on the Moon.

The rest of the nations know they can’t compete with the Big Three, but they still want to have a say in what goes up and what comes down; they are assessing their options and aligning into ‘space blocs’.

hat role do private companies play in space exploration?

Government funding is still the biggest source of revenue for the Big Three, as it is for the European Space Agency. However, investment from private enterprise is growing rapidly.

For example, a decade ago in the USA the private sector was spending about $1 billion a year on research and development. Now it’s between $5 billion and $6 billion. 

Private enterprise is part of the 21st century space race and all three players have big commercial companies involved. Commercial companies have seen that while the risks are great, the potential profits are enormous.

What are the goals of the new space race? 

Challenges will be taken on for various reasons – prestige, commercial and strategic.

For example, there are numerous objectives behind the return to the Moon via the Artemis missions, and the proposed Moon Bases the USA and China/Russia intend to build. Using the Moon as a launch pad for going to Mars is one goal and mining the Moon for resources is another.

Recently, evidence has been found for deposits of metal oxides in some of the large craters of the Moon. It’s also believed the Moon contains reserves of silicon, titanium, rare earth metals and aluminium. 

Humanity is destined to spend more time there, digging beneath the surface in pursuit of these metals, which are used in vital modern technologies. Many countries have the incentive to go after them, especially those that don’t want to rely on China, which currently holds a third of the world’s known reserves.

Countries are also after helium-3. Theoretically, helium-3 can be used to create nuclear fusion – the Holy Grail of energy production – as it would produce higher amounts of energy than nuclear fission but is much less radioactive. On Earth only about 0.0001 per cent of helium is helium-3, but on the Moon there may be a million tonnes of the stuff.   

Ouyang Ziyuan, China’s distinguished Chief Scientist in its Lunar Exploration Program, believes that if helium-3’s power can be harnessed it will ‘solve humanity’s energy demand for around 10,000 years’.

The space race in general also has a military aspect. As satellites become more integral to commerce and warfare on Earth, the more countries will feel the need to defend them and, in a few cases, have the ability to attack them.

What are the implications of a country pushing ahead of the others?

A successful colonization of the Moon will give a country, or an alliance, advantages similar to those enjoyed by maritime powers in previous ages.

A dominant power will be able to stymie the ambitions of others by occupying the territory and attempting to police it. Its satellites will enjoy a direct line of sight down to geostationary and low Earth orbit. Those who pave the way will set parameters others may be expected to follow. 

The first to establish themselves will be the first to access the potential wealth of the Moon and the ability to ship some of that wealth back home.

What tensions are most likely to occur in space?

Tensions will more likely arise around attacking satellites. Part of countries’ early-warning systems of a nuclear launch are within their satellites. If a nation thought these machines were being threatened, the temptation to take pre-emptive action would increase.

Without satellites, international communication networks and global positioning systems would not exist. Jam, spoof or destroy these satellites and your grocery delivery van can’t find you, the emergency services are lost, ships drift off course and a major industrialised economy such as the UK loses an estimated £1 billion a day. Their importance to modern life cannot be overstated and their function in the military is now key to modern warfare.

How important is regulating the new space race?

The idea that space is a global common is disappearing. The stakes are high. We need a new set of rules, and a better understanding of the space they govern. There are eight billion reasons why. 

Every human on Earth has a stake in a rules-based space order, and in global cooperation on cosmic issues. Without this we may end up fighting over the geography of space, just as we have done over the geography of Earth.

Since the first space race ranged from the 1950s to the 1970s, some things have stayed the same. Exploring space and figuring out what is beyond our planet has always been at the forefront of exciting topics. Another thing that hasn’t changed is that all of the world’s top powers want to be the first to figure out all the mysteries that lie out there. This friendly competition between space programs should keep the exploration of the Moon, mars, and space, in general, reaching new strides quicker than ever. It will be interesting to see where this new-age space race will take us in the upcoming years.